By John Birch
Two rounds of pool games have gone - one remains - so what can we say about the likely shape of the semi-finals?
The key target for the leading sides in this year’s tournament – as well as winning their pool - is to win the top ranking for the semis, as this will give you a game against the best runner-up and therefore a very good chance of making the final.
Meanwhile the other two pool winners will have to meet each other. This was undoubtedly why England did not lift their foot off the gas for one moment against Kazaksstan in round two and with New Zealand getting maximum points the top ranking could well come down to a points difference. Katy McLean’s kicking was therefore important as it has put England ahead currently on the points board.
Rankings after two rounds:
• England (1st Pool B, 10 competition points, Points difference of +109)
• New Zealand (1st Pool A, 10 points, +79)
• Canada (1st Pool C, 10 points, +57)
• France (2nd Pool C, 8 points, +16)
• USA (2nd Pool B, 5 points, +41)
• Australia (2nd Pool A, 5 points,-13)
• Ireland (3rd Pool B, 5 points, -17)
• South Africa (3rd Pool A, 4 points, -47)
• Sweden (3rd Pool C, 1 point, -36)
• Wales (4th Pool A, 1 point, -19)
• Scotland (4th Pool C, 0 points, -37)
• Kazakhstan (4th Pool B, 0 points, -133)
Which, if nothing else changed, would give us England vs France, and New Zealand v Canada.
Obviously this could well change and, as things stand, everyone down to South Africa has a theoretical chance of making the final four. However, in practice it will be a very tough job for anyone outside the current top four to force their way into the semi-finals.
In fact the fate of every team currently ranked 5th or below will depend on one game – Canada vs France.
A French win would pretty much shut the door. Ireland and Australia would still have a theoretical chance to qualify, but would need to score 40 or 50 points against Kazakhstan and South Africa respectively which will be tough going - as even if Canada lost, on current form you would assume this would not be by much.
On the other hand a Canadian win will condemn France to the minor placings, opening the fourth place up and realistically to Ireland and Australia.
As there is only one point between them at the moment essentially whoever won their game by the biggest margin would be competing for a place in the World Cup Final.
Just to add a bit of confusion - USA and South Africa also could theoretically qualify as well, but that would require USA to beat England, Kazakhstan to beat Ireland, and South Africa to beat Australia – a combination of results that is not terribly likely!
However, in the end what all this jockeying for positions will decide is who will play England or New Zealand. If either score four tries in their final games then they will avoid each other in the semi-finals, which should wrap up any doubts about who will play who in the final.
Let the games commence!
